Grid Resilience Study in Saint Lucia
Saint Lucia has been experiencing increasingly severe weather systems, largely because of climate change globally. These extreme weather events threaten LUCELEC’s critical infrastructure. LUCELEC understands that the St. Lucian grid is not currently built to resist the strongest of storms (Category 5 and above) and intends to update its grid construction standards and take actions to incrementally improve system resilience so that it is capable of withstanding Atlantic storms, which are expected t increase in severity and frequency due to climate change.
In preparation for these actions, LUCELEC engaged K&M Team to prepare a study that would address the following two major topics:
- Providing a means of measuring current grid resilience and setting annual resilience targets and
- Analyzing the electrical network infrastructure in St. Lucia using inspections, models, and other tools to identify a pipeline of projects to increase the resiliency of the transmission and distribution networks, generation assets, and LUCELEC’s solar farm.
Throughout the study, K&M will develop a reliability metric to track LUCELEC’s progress in improving system resilience. This will involve reviewing and analyzing system data, conducting interviews with LUCELEC’s senior staff, performing a site visit, and identifying a prioritized pipeline of climate resilience projects. The ultimate goal is to enable LUCELEC to develop a specific grid resilience improvement plan.
During the course of the study, K&M developed a reliability metric that would allow LUCELEC to measure their progress in improving system resilience, review and analyze the system data, conduct interviews with LUCELEC’s senior staff, perform a site visit, identify the pipeline of the climate resilience projects, and prioritize the projects to allow LUCELEL to develop a specific grid resilience improvement plan.
K&M has been contracted by Water en Energiebedrijf Aruba (WEB) for an assignment to assist in updating the Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and emissions forecast of a generation scenario where all thermals are converted to run-on gas from LNG and renewable energy sources fill at least 50% of the island’s electricity generation needs.
K&M will perform the following:
- Update and confirm scenario assumptions, including the size of wind and solar power plants; battery size and duration; investment costs; timelines for wind and solar projects; capacity factors for wind and solar projects; CAPEX and OPEX for new technologies (solar, wind, and battery; and fuel prices for HFO, LFO, and LNG
- Update WEB Generation and Financial models according to updated assumptions
- Reflect any new information on other key assumptions driving the generation and financial model. For example, first gas timing, ELMAR demand, rooftop solar penetration, and others
- Include more refined estimates of parasitic load and other internal electricity consumption that affects the net generation
- Refine maintenance cost estimates based on actual running hours
- include the Task 1 agreed-on scenarios and updated assumptions.
- Run models and analyze scenarios
K&M was contracted by Guinéenne d’Energie (GDE) to perform a pre-feasibility study for a new gas-fired power plant project in Conakry. The objective of this assignment is to identify the size and timing of gas-fired capacity additions that are economically justified in the Guinean grid, estimate the economically justified electricity generation using natural gas and resulting gas demand, assess the viable generation options for a new gas-fired power plant in Conakry, and develop an implementation plan for progressing the project from its current conceptual stage to a commissioning stage.
K&M’s scope of work included:
K&M has commenced this pre-feasibility study by collecting data on the current state of the power system in Guinea and developing a simplified model to estimate thermal capacity requirements to meet annual peak and reserve requirements. From this work, K&M has identified the size and timing of gas-fired capacity additions that are economically justified in the Guinean grid. K&M also developed a simplified merit-order dispatch model to estimate the dispatch of a new gas-fired power plant and calculate the resulting gas demand. Later, the team assessed viable interconnection arrangements between the power plant and transmission system substation, evaluated site conditions, and identified viable technologies and configurations. K&M also calculated and compared the marginal costs and the Levelized cost of electricity for each generation technology option. Lastly, the team assisted the project by developing an implementation plan to help progress the project from the current conceptual stage to the commissioning stage.
In the face of climate change and growing electricity demand, countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are challenged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions while ensuring reliable, resilient, and environmentally sustainable electricity. In this context, and for those countries with available resources, geothermal energy is a valuable alternative that can provide clean, firm, and flexible power generation at a competitive cost, complementing other renewable intermittent sources. In LAC countries, there is an identified potential for geothermal generation of approximately 13.4GW, with some studies estimating a range between 11GW to 55GW. In this context, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is preparing a funding proposal to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) to create a regional facility that will support geothermal energy development and its potential applications in LAC. The fund will target the following countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago. The objective of this consultancy is to develop a theory of change for the GeoPlus Programme that will include a cost-benefit analysis and detailed quantification of mitigation, adaptation, and co-benefit outcomes of geothermal development in LAC. This will result in a report for publication on the merits of geothermal energy development. As part of this work, the team will also prepare the documentation required for the GCF funding proposal, including a feasibility and market study and economic and financial analysis.
K&M will advise the IDB on the following activities:
- Prepare the publication on the merits of geothermal energy development in LAC, including determining the cost-benefit analysis for the geothermal reference project
- Provide a high-level estimation of the mitigation, adaptation, and co-benefit outcomes of the GeoPlus Programme at the LAC regional level
- Prepare the GCF funding proposal, including the main document and annexes of the funding proposal
The IDB contracted K&M Advisors LLC (K&M) to conduct a country-level survey in Panama regarding employment creation in the energy sectors associated to the green transition.
The main objective of the assignment was to gather data on the number and types of jobs created in the energy sector, including renewable energy, energy efficiency, demand management, electromobility, hydrogen, installation of solar panels, and storage, including advisory and consulting firms in these sectors. The K&M team made comparisons of employment creation by types of employment between the different sectors. This analysis included topics such as gender, education, investment, employment, and other relevant variables on both companies and unions present in the country that are representative of the whole. Additionally, the team provided the IDB with a database, developed a methodological guidebook, and presented the findings to IDB staff.
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), contracted K&M, GeothermEx, and POWER Engineers to assess new approaches and develop business models for medium/high-enthalpy geothermal energy for electricity, green hydrogen, and industrial application in Chile.
To accomplish this, the team will (i) formulate a conceptual model for an exploration risk-mitigation mechanism, suitable for promoting geothermal use in district heating, industrial applications, and/or electricity generation, (ii) develop a business model for medium/high enthalpy district heating/cooling systems, (iii) design of a contractual and market strategy for increasing the competitiveness of geothermal power generation, (iv) develop a business model for the production of green hydrogen using geothermal energy, (v) a business model for the application of geothermal heat into an energy intensive industrial activity.
The Government of Kenya intends to create a domestic natural gas market for power generation and industrial use with the aim to help diversify the country’s energy mix, improve energy security, reduce the cost of electricity and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The primary objective of this project is to conduct a feasibility study for the development and operation of infrastructure for importation of liquefied natural gas, conversion of the existing HFO (MSD) Power Plants and development of a natural gas power generation plant.
KenGen contracted K&M to analyze the technical, financial, economic, environmental and social feasibility of the development and operation of infrastructure for importation of liquefied natural gas, conversion of the existing HFO (MSD) Power Plants and development of a natural gas power generation plant to determine what, if any, options would be optimal for natural gas power generation in Kenya. As part of the study, K&M will complete the following tasks:
- Evaluate indicative LNG demand and where the demand is located
- Identify the least-cost LNG import and logistics solution to meet the demand
- Develop a business case for LNG at the cost estimated
- Evaluate LNG supply & infrastructure procurement strategy
- Develop preferred procurement option and conduct financial, economic and value for money analysis
- Conduct technical assessment of feasibility to convert 10 existing power plants from HFO/diesel to LNG
- Develop conceptual design and cost estimates for plants to be converted
- Carry out financial viability analysis for plants to be converted
- Prepare implementation schedule and risk assessment for plants to be converted
- Conduct technical assessment of a greenfield gas power plant
- Develop conceptual design and cost estimates for greenfield gas power plant
- Assess preliminary environmental and social impact of greenfield gas power plant
- Carry out financial viability analysis for greenfield gas power plant
- Prepare implementation schedule and risk assessment for the greenfield gas power plant
Vivo Energy is considering developing an LNG import terminal in Kamsar or Conakry to supply LNG by road to mines or other energy-intensive industries in Guinea (the “Project”). Using LNG rather than diesel or Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) could reduce energy costs to these mines and industries. As an initial step, Vivo, working alongside the International Finance Corporation (IFC), will perform a preliminary analysis of the feasibility of the Project.
K&M was responsible for:
- Estimating required LNG trucks, ISO containers, customer-site storage, and customer-site regas and control systems
- Estimating logistics costs for in-country deliveries
- Analyzing the competitiveness of LNG available versus liquid fuels currently used by potential customers
- Supporting the analysis of a PV solar option including analysis of LNG-Solar hybrid solution vs LNG, fuel-switching economics, and LNG storage sizing
- Preliminary assessment of bankability for project or corporate financing.
K&M was contracted by a development bank to provide a global market assessment on floating solar projects and the potential development of a pipeline of such projects. This market assessment will expand across Africa, Asia, Latin America, Europe and Central Asia, but will primarily identify key markets in Africa and Asia. K&M will also suggest potential business models for the floating storage projects.
The IFC contracted K&M Advisors LLC (K&M) to assess the feasibility and market opportunities for the implementation and operation of wastewater reuse projects to supply off-takers in CDMX. The team will conduct a market assessment to understand the potential demand for and supply of treated wastewater in CDMX and identify, contact, and survey the alternative off-take uses for treated wastewater in CDMX. Additionally, the team will develop a detailed analysis regarding the basic technical aspects of the implementation, including potential locations based on demand forecast for potential off-takers by types of water quality and location requirements. K&M will outline and evaluate the possible financial and contractual structures for the development of water reuse projects. The team will prepare a final report and lead a Workshop on key findings and recommendations for the IFC, World Bank and other external guests to be agreed with the IFC.