K&M Advisors - Aruba WEB Load Forecast

Aruba WEB Load Forecast

WEB is interested in developing a load forecasting model that can predict WEB’s peak load and annual generation requirement between 2025 and 2029. The model should forecast electricity generation based on forecasts for key independent variables such as temperature, tourism arrivals, distributed generation, EV usage, and others agreed with WEB.
Under this assignment, K&M was responsible for collecting and validating historical data for Aruba, including hourly temperature, humidity, tourism arrivals, distributed solar PV additions, and others. K&M processed the data by cleaning missing values, aligning different time resolutions, and applying smoothing techniques. Using historical data, K&M analyzed the correlation between the dependent variable, Peak Load (MW), and each of the independent variables to determine which variables to include in the polynomial regression analysis. Based on the regression analysis, K&M developed the forecasting model, which can predict WEB’s peak load based on forecasted data for the period 2025 – 2029. K&M will provide this model as a workbook to WEB, which includes a user-friendly dashboard for data visualization and scenario analysis, as well as a user manual.

K&M was engaged by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) on a Definitional Mission (DM) to aid in decision-making processes related to funding activities that enhance the pipeline development for the Alliance for Green Infrastructure (AGIA) in sub-Saharan Africa. The mission is centered on identifying and evaluating potential green infrastructure projects in diverse sectors such as renewable energy, transport and logistics, water and sanitation, broadband and ICT infrastructure, health, and urban and rural infrastructure, for funding consideration by members of AGIA’s Project Preparation pillar, including USTDA and Africa50.

As part of this engagement, K&M’s responsibilities include conducting preliminary project analysis by identifying viable projects through collaboration with USTDA, Africa50/AGIA, and through outreach to key stakeholders, while also screening these projects based on USTDA and AGIA’s funding criteria, which include climate resilience. The team is also tasked with traveling to Africa50 headquarters and various host countries to close information gaps and engage with prospective project sponsors and stakeholders.

Further duties involve a detailed project analysis where K&M prioritizes and recommends projects that are best suited for USTDA and Africa50/AGIA funding. This includes preparing up to ten draft Project Reports, developing terms of references (TORs), project budgets, and task completion schedules. These reports are meticulously crafted to incorporate feedback from USTDA and Africa50/AGIA and finalized accordingly.

The culmination of K&M’s work is the preparation of a Final DM Report that aligns with USTDA’s requirements, encapsulating all the Project Reports. This comprehensive approach ensures that the mission not only aligns with the strategic objectives of AGIA but also significantly contributes to sustainable infrastructure development across sub-Saharan Africa, fostering global green growth initiatives.

Biomass power generation is an attractive option for the Mauritian island grid because it offers dispatchable generation, uses agricultural waste as fuel, and has lower emissions than fossil fuel technologies. The climate rationale to transition the Omnicane Independent Power Producer (IPP) to 100% biomass is even stronger because it will displace CO2-intensive coal generation with local or imported biomass generation.

Despite its benefits, biomass power generation projects are risky and could be unpopular. One of the main risks is feedstock supply. Biomass supply can present significant seasonal variations, which, combined with storage limitations, can lead to significant supply-demand imbalances. Biomass can also have significant year-to-year supply variations due to variability in yield from biomass harvesting operations or reductions in cultivated land. Furthermore, biomass projects can be controversial and elicit local criticism.

IFC is aware of these types of risks and concerns about biomass and the Omnicane project and wants to commission this high-level study to analyze the financial, economic, and climate implications of transitioning the Omnicane IPP to 100% biomass. The results of the study should show, with data and objective analysis, if this transition is a better economic and climate choice than continuing with the current biomass-coal operation or developing another technology that is dispatchable and has low carbon emissions.

The K&M team will estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the Omnicane power plant when burning biomass (sugar cane bagasse) and coal, as well as only biomass. In addition, K&M will seek to understand the biomass supply chain risks and mitigation options. K&M will then identify a shortlist of realistic dispatchable alternatives to the 100% biomass Omnicane IPP and to develop an estimate of the LCOE of these alternatives. To complete this work, K&M will develop an LCOE model to estimate the LCOE and CO2 emissions cost of all generation possibilities, including:

Existing plant – bagasse + coal
100% biomass plant – local bagasse
100% biomass plant – imported biomass
100% biomass plant – mix of local bagasse and imported biomass
Each of the alternative options identified and analyzed

In addition to these scenarios, K&M will run sensitivities on the power plant’s capacity factor, including 55%, 70%, and 90%.

K&M was engaged by KBR on a time and materials basis to assist the Singapore government in finalizing the Request for Proposals (RFP) and its annexes for Phase 1 of the Clean Ammonia Project. As a subconsultant, K&M’s role is to provide expert advisory and modeling services specifically related to the commercial aspects of the RFP. K&M reviewed the RfP and the commercial annexes and provided recommendations to the Government.

K&M Advisors was contracted by KBR to support the Singapore Government in designing the commercial aspects of an RfP process to contract a clean ammonia project. The scope of work included advise on the project structure, incentives, RfP drafting, and evaluation criteria. In particular, K&M evaluated potential Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models suitable for the project. This task was comprehensive and involved assessing various candidate PPP models, summarizing each option, and detailing their respective advantages and disadvantages. K&M made recommendations on the most suitable PPP models. These recommendations considered aspects like government funding, ownership options, their implications under various timing scenarios, and related termination and buyout concepts.

In addition to PPP model assessment, K&M Advisors was tasked with identifying relevant funding support mechanisms and incentives. This part of their role focused on analyzing these mechanisms and incentives in terms of their feasibility and the potential impact on the project. They were also responsible for explaining the pros and cons of each option, thereby aiding the decision-making process. This included providing expert advice on the application of the Contract for Difference (CfD) concept for the project. This involved presenting case studies of commercial or market structures, such as CfD, and analyzing their effectiveness. The firm was also responsible for assessing and recommending whether CfD or an alternative model would be the most suitable for the project’s needs.

Lastly, K&M Advisors offered guidance on integrating key funding and commercial structure parameters into a Request for Proposals (RFP). This guidance was to be presented as high-level guidelines in the form of a PowerPoint presentation. They advised on RFP market regulation clauses, evaluation matrices, and questionnaires, aiming to enable a fair comparison of proposals. Their advice also included best practices for apportioning costs related to power generation, bunkering, and common infrastructure.

Through these comprehensive services, K&M Advisors aimed to equip the client with a thorough understanding of the various aspects of funding, partnership models, and commercial structures crucial for the project’s success.

The general objective of this consultancy was to prepare the technical, economic, and legal feasibility studies for the introduction of green hydrogen in the energy supply for the domestic market, as well as the supply of an international market from Panama.

In this assignment, K&M was responsible for assessing the potential routes for commercializing green hydrogen from Panama, identifying the role of Panama in the green hydrogen supply chain, developing a methodology for prioritizing capital investments in green hydrogen, and carrying out the economic analysis and risk analysis of developing green hydrogen facilities in Panama.

Saint Lucia had been experiencing increasingly severe weather systems, largely due to global climate change. These extreme weather events posed a threat to LUCELEC’s critical infrastructure. Recognizing that the current grid in St. Lucia was not built to withstand the strongest storms, particularly Category 5 and above, LUCELEC aimed to update its grid construction standards and implement measures to enhance system resilience. This was in response to the anticipated increase in severity and frequency of Atlantic storms resulting from climate change.

To prepare for these actions, LUCELEC enlisted the services of the K&M Team to conduct a comprehensive study addressing two key areas:

Establishing a method to measure the existing grid resilience and setting annual resilience targets.
Analyzing the electrical network infrastructure in St. Lucia through inspections, models, and other tools to identify a series of projects that would enhance the resilience of the transmission and distribution networks, generation assets, and LUCELEC’s solar farm.

Throughout the study, K&M developed a reliability metric to track LUCELEC’s progress in improving system resilience. This involved reviewing and analyzing system data, conducting interviews with LUCELEC’s senior staff, performing on-site visits, and identifying a prioritized pipeline of climate resilience projects. The ultimate objective was to enable LUCELEC to formulate a specific grid resilience improvement plan.

During the course of the study, K&M successfully developed a reliability metric that would allow LUCELEC to measure their progress in enhancing system resilience. They conducted a comprehensive review and analysis of system data, engaged in interviews with LUCELEC’s senior staff, conducted on-site visits, identified a pipeline of climate resilience projects, and prioritized them accordingly. The outcome of the study empowered LUCELEC to develop a targeted grid resilience improvement plan.

K&M was hired by a private client to provide a detailed analysis on the viability of Noble Group Holdings Limited using publicly available information or information provided by the Client. K&M research will include market intelligence of the recent restructuring of Noble Group. An understanding of the recent changes in the organization and their shareholders strategy will also be provided.

K&M served as technical and financial consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Center for Privatization of the Government of the Dominican Republic. K&M evaluated the opportunities for and impediments to independent power producers in the Dominican Republic. Incorporating technical, financial, legal, regulatory issues, K&M evaluated private sector options for power generation. This effort resulted in the eventual development of the private power law enacted by the Dominican Republic in 1990.

K&M served as a technical and procurement advisor to the Foreign Buildings Operations Office (FBO) of the U.S. Department of State to identify and classify the Department’s worldwide needs for Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) equipment. K&M conducted a detailed study of current state of the art UPS systems and identified and established the relevant factors which were used to evaluate the UPS vendor equipment and the parameters required to properly operate all types of State Department equipment requiring UPS power. The results of the study were used to: (1) identify readily available commercial UPS systems which meet DOS requirements, (2) develop and advertise competitive, multi-year UPS requirements Request for Proposals (RFP) acceptable to all DOS Embassy UPS users, and (3) provide a technical basis for evaluation of RFP submissions and award of contract.